Robust Earthquake Early Warning at a Fraction of the Cost: ASTUTI Costa Rica

Abstract

We show that a fixed smartphone network can provide robust Earthquake Early Warning for at least two orders of magnitude less cost than scientific-grade networks. Our software and cloud-based data architecture that we have constructed for the Alerta Sismica Temprana Utilizando Teléfonos Inteligentes (ASTUTI; Earthquake Early Warning Utilizing Smartphones) network in Costa Rica is easily scaled and exported. Implementation comprises provisioning and installing modern smartphones in judicious locations. Stand-up time for regionally operational networks can be on the order of days. We evaluated a non-parametric ground-motion detection and alerting strategy that would alert the entire Costa Rican population of any event with a ground motion detection threshold of 0.55–0.65 %g at four neighboring stations. During a 6-month evaluation period ASTUTI detected and alerted on five of 13 earthquakes with M_w 4.8–5.3 that caused felt Modified Mercalli Intensity shaking levels of 4.3–6. The system did not produce any false alerts and the undetected events did not produce wide-spread or significant felt shaking. System latencies were less than or similar to scientific-grade latencies. Alerts for all five detected events would have reached the capital city, San Jose, before strong S-wave shaking. This would have afforded time for Drop Cover Hold On actions by most residents. Two of the five alerts were triggered by P-waves suggesting that smartphone-based networks could approach the fastest theoretical EEW performance, especially with future expected improvements in smartphone sensors and processing algorithms.

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