Earthquake Hazard After a Mainshock in California
- Creators
- Reasenberg, Paul A.
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Jones, Lucile M.
Abstract
After a strong earthquake, the possibility of the occurrence of either significant aftershocks or an even stronger mainshock is a continuing hazard that threatens the resumption of critical services and reoccupation of essential but partially damaged structures. A stochastic parametric model allows determination of probabilities for aftershocks and larger mainshocks during intervals following the mainshock. The probabilities depend strongly on the model parameters, which are estimated with Bayesian statistics from both the ongoing aftershock sequence and from a suite of historic California aftershock sequences. Probabilities for damaging aftershocks and greater mainshocks are typically well-constrained after the first day of the sequence, with accuracy increasing with time.
Additional Information
© 1989 American Association for the Advancement of Science. Received 20 September 1988; accepted 23 December 1988. We thank M. V. Matthews for providing technical assistance throughout the study, B. Ellsworth and Y. Ogata for helpful discussions and suggestions, and R. D. Brown, for initially stimulating our interest in this problem.Additional details
- Eprint ID
- 98503
- Resolver ID
- CaltechAUTHORS:20190906-160046980
- Created
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2019-09-06Created from EPrint's datestamp field
- Updated
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2021-11-16Created from EPrint's last_modified field
- Caltech groups
- Seismological Laboratory