Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis for Reverse Faults

Abstract

We present a methodology for evaluating potential surface fault displacement due to reverse faulting events in a probabilistic manner. This methodology, called probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA) follows procedures that were originally applied to normal faulting. We present empirical distributions for surface rupture, maximum and average displacement, spatial variability of slip, and other random variables that are central to performing PFDHA for reverse faults. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis is conducted on all independent variables in the PFDHA procedure. The Los Osos fault zone of central California is used as the test case, and results are presented in the form of a hazard curve. The influence each of the variables has on a hazard curve is quantified to provide direction for future research in PFDHA. It is seen that a distribution for slip spatial variability is the least influential term in the procedure, and a term for the probability of surface rupture has the most influence.

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