Predicting partisan redistricting disputes

Abstract

This paper explores the factors that lead to the relatively rare partisan disputes over congressional redistricting plans. In previous work, single-party control of both houses of the state legislature and of the governorship has emerged as a key correlate of partisan redistricting in the 1980s. This paper presents an interactive statistical model of partisan redistricting plans and concludes that, in addition to single-party control, the nature of the voting rule and the political competitiveness of the state legislature affect the likelihood of partisan redistricting.

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