Policy Moderation or conflicting expectations? Testing the intentional models of split-ticket voting

Abstract

In this article, the authors examine two models of the electoral origins of divided government. One model is the policy-moderation model, advocated originally by Fiorina. The other model (proposed by Jacobson) focuses on the different expectations voters have concerning the legislative and executive branches of government, as well as the different electoral contexts in which voters make decisions. Using individual-level survey data, the authors test various hypotheses derived from each model. The empirical results give little support to the policy-moderation model. However, the second model has strong empirical support. The authors conclude with a discussion of their results in relation to empirical and normative studies of divided control of government.

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