Welcome to the new version of CaltechAUTHORS. Login is currently restricted to library staff. If you notice any issues, please email coda@library.caltech.edu
Published January 2018 | Supplemental Material
Journal Article Open

Two information aggregation mechanisms for predicting the opening weekend box office revenues of films: Box-office Prophecy and Guess of Guesses

Abstract

Field tests were conducted on two newinformation aggregationmechanism designs. The mechanisms were designed to collect information held as intuitions about opening weekend box office revenues for movies in Australia. The principles on which the mechanisms operate and their capacity to collect information are explored. A pari-mutuel mechanism produces a predicted probability distribution over box office amounts that is, with the exception of very small films, indistinguishable from the actual revenues. The second mechanism is based on guessing the guesses of others and when applied under conditions where incentives for accuracy are unavailable still performs well against data.

Additional Information

© 2017 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Received: 8 March 2016. Accepted: 24 January 2017. First Online: 16 February 2017. We thank the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation; the Lee Center; Australian Research Council (Linkage Grant LP110200336); University of Sydney; Australian Film, Television and Radio School (AFTRS); and the Caltech Laboratory for Experimental Economics and Political Science. The computer and software development skills of Hsing Yang Lee and Travis Maron are acknowledged. Their skills and dedication made the research possible. The comments of Matt Shum were very helpful. The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00199-017-1036-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Formerly Social Science Working Paper 1412.

Attached Files

Supplemental Material - 199_2017_1036_MOESM1_ESM.pdf

Files

199_2017_1036_MOESM1_ESM.pdf
Files (189.6 kB)
Name Size Download all
md5:013d3457a13886326b6417e61ee10b90
189.6 kB Preview Download

Additional details

Created:
August 19, 2023
Modified:
March 5, 2024