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Published August 30, 2017 | Submitted
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Patterns of Voting on Ballot Propositions: A Mixture Model of Voter Types

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the patterns of behavior voters exhibit over a set of votes. We explore a set of structural estimation problems that involve analyzing several votes at one time and develop estimation techniques for identifying and analyzing patterns. Using the information in these patterns, we introduce a method for studying voter heterogeneity based on a finite mixture model. Finally, we employ data containing actual micro-level vote returns to estimate the mixture model parameters.

Additional Information

We thank Ken McCue for help in obtaining the data and Henry Brady, Bruce Cain, Skip Lupia, David Grether, Rod Kiewiet, and Doug Rivers for helpful comments.

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Created:
August 20, 2023
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January 14, 2024