On the Evolutionary Emergence of Optimism
- Creators
- Heifetz, Aviad
- Spiegel, Yossi
Abstract
Successful individuals were frequently found to be overly optimistic. These findings are puzzling, as one could expect that realists would perform best in the long run. We show, however, that in a large class of strategic interactions of either cooperation or competition, the equilibrium payoffs of optimists may be higher than those of realists. This is because the very fact of being optimistic changes the game, and drives the adversary to change her equilibrium behavior, possibly to the benefit of the optimist. Suppose, then, that a population consists initially of individuals with various perceptional tendencies, pessimists and optimists to various extents, as well as of realists. Individuals meet in pairs to interact, and more successful tendencies proliferate faster. We show that as time goes by, some moderate degree of optimism will take over, and outnumber all other tendencies.
Additional Information
First version: December 1999. This version: October 2000.Attached Files
Submitted - sswp1104.pdf
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Additional details
- Eprint ID
- 79879
- Resolver ID
- CaltechAUTHORS:20170807-160109793
- Created
-
2017-08-08Created from EPrint's datestamp field
- Updated
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2019-10-03Created from EPrint's last_modified field
- Caltech groups
- Social Science Working Papers
- Series Name
- Social Science Working Paper
- Series Volume or Issue Number
- 1104