Earthquake Prediction and Hazards Evaluation in the Year 2000 -- A Dialogue
- Creators
- Allen, Clarence R.
- Andrews, Richard A.
Abstract
Decisionmakers have different perspectives about geologic hazards than scientists and engineers. These differences, which have been summarized by Szanton (1981, table 3-1), are the reasons that implementation of loss reduction measures are difficult. The differences are: The ultimate objective of the decisionmaker is the approval of the electorate; it is the respect of peers for the scientist/engineer; The time horizon for the decisionmaker is short; it is long for the scientist/engineer; The focus of the decisionmaker is on the external logic of the problem; it is on the internal logic for the scientist/engineer; The mode of thought for the decisionmaker is deductive and particular; it is inductive and generic for the scientist/engineer; The most valued outcome for the decisionmaker is a reliable solution; it is original insight for the scientist/engineer; The mode of expression is simple and absolute for the decisionmaker; it is abstruse and qualified for the scientist/engineer, and; The preferred form of conclusion for the decisionmaker is one of "best solution" with uncertainties submerged; it is multiple possibilities with uncertainties emphasized for the scientist/engineer. With these principles in mind, let us now turn the clock forward to the year 2000 and a discussion between a decisionmaker and a scientist as they seek to resolve their philosophical differences and reach solutions to problems of earthquake-hazards reduction.
Additional Information
© 1986 USGS.Attached Files
Published - Allen_1986p37.pdf
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Additional details
- Eprint ID
- 53856
- Resolver ID
- CaltechAUTHORS:20150120-084311662
- Created
-
2015-01-20Created from EPrint's datestamp field
- Updated
-
2019-10-03Created from EPrint's last_modified field
- Series Name
- U.S. Geological Survey open-file report
- Series Volume or Issue Number
- 86-401