Published November 2014
| Submitted
Journal Article
Open
Mecro-Economic Voting: Local Information and Micro-Perceptions of the Macro-Economy
Abstract
We develop an incomplete information theory of economic voting, where voters' information about macro-economic performance is determined by the economic conditions of people similar to themselves. We test our theory using both cross-sectional and time-series survey data. A novel survey instrument that asks respondents their numerical assessment of the unemployment rate confirms that individuals' economic information responds to the economic conditions of people similar to themselves. Furthermore, these assessments are correlated with individuals' vote choices. We also show in time-series data that state unemployment robustly correlates with evaluations of national economic conditions, and presidential support.
Additional Information
© 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. We are indebted to Jim Alt and Rod Kiewiet for continual encouragement. We also thank Mike Alvarez, Laurent Bouton, John Bullock, Conor Dowling, Ray Duch, Jon Eguia, Jeff Frieden, Julia Gray, Lisa Martin, Nolan McCarty, Stephanie Rickard, Ken Scheve, Barry Weingast, and Chris Wlezien for comments and suggestions, and seminar audiences at Harvard, LSE, MIT, NYU, Temple, Yale, the 2009 Midwest Political Science Association and the 2010 American Political Science Association Conferences for useful feedback and comments.Attached Files
Submitted - ssrn-id1856286.pdf
Files
ssrn-id1856286.pdf
Files
(344.3 kB)
Name | Size | Download all |
---|---|---|
md5:0de19c022dd7ff429fd16fc5d3e6321e
|
344.3 kB | Preview Download |
Additional details
- Eprint ID
- 52242
- Resolver ID
- CaltechAUTHORS:20141201-143522712
- Created
-
2014-12-01Created from EPrint's datestamp field
- Updated
-
2021-11-10Created from EPrint's last_modified field