Earthquake prediction

Abstract

Five to ten years ago, great optimism existed in the seismological community that routine short-term earthquake prediction was imminent, based mainly on reported successes in various parts of the world in identifying physical precursors to earthquakes. Especially significant was the successful Chinese prediction of the 1975 Haicheng earthquake, with considerable saving of lives. Within the past five years, however, research results have been sobering, and the problem turns out to be a more difficult one than we had thought. In no part of the world has a successful, routinely operating earthquake-prediction system yet been implemented.

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