Real-time inversions for finite fault slip models and rupture geometry based on high-rate GPS data
Abstract
We present an inversion strategy capable of using real-time high-rate GPS data to simultaneously solve for a distributed slip model and fault geometry in real time as a rupture unfolds. We employ Bayesian inference to find the optimal fault geometry and the distribution of possible slip models for that geometry using a simple analytical solution. By adopting an analytical Bayesian approach, we can solve this complex inversion problem (including calculating the uncertainties on our results) in real time. Furthermore, since the joint inversion for distributed slip and fault geometry can be computed in real time, the time required to obtain a source model of the earthquake does not depend on the computational cost. Instead, the time required is controlled by the duration of the rupture and the time required for information to propagate from the source to the receivers. We apply our modeling approach, called Bayesian Evidence-based Fault Orientation and Real-time Earthquake Slip, to the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake, 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, and a simulated Hayward fault earthquake. In all three cases, the inversion recovers the magnitude, spatial distribution of slip, and fault geometry in real time. Since our inversion relies on static offsets estimated from real-time high-rate GPS data, we also present performance tests of various approaches to estimating quasi-static offsets in real time. We find that the raw high-rate time series are the best data to use for determining the moment magnitude of the event, but slightly smoothing the raw time series helps stabilize the inversion for fault geometry.
Additional Information
© 2014 American Geophysical Union. Received 22 AUG 2013; Accepted 23 FEB 2014; Accepted article online 27 FEB 2014; Published online 17 APR 2014. The authors wish to thank James Beck, Benjamin Brooks, and Elizabeth Cochran for helpful reviews. Brad Aagaard provided the time histories of surface displacement for the Hayward fault scenario earthquake. Yehuda Bock and Brendan Crowell provided 1 Hz GPS solutions, and Hiroo Kanamori provided the source time function for the 2003 Tokachi-oki, Japan earthquake. Asaf Inbal and Susan Owen provided the 1 Hz GPS solutions for the 2011 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake.Attached Files
Published - jgrb50571.pdf
Supplemental Material - 2013JB010622fs01.pdf
Supplemental Material - 2013JB010622fs02.pdf
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Supplemental Material - 2013JB010622ms01.avi
Supplemental Material - 2013JB010622ms02.avi
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Supplemental Material - 2013JB010622ms06.avi
Supplemental Material - 2013JB010622ms07.avi
Supplemental Material - 2013JB010622ms08.avi
Supplemental Material - 2013JB010622ms09.avi
Supplemental Material - readme.docx
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Additional details
- Eprint ID
- 47495
- Resolver ID
- CaltechAUTHORS:20140725-094124222
- Created
-
2014-07-25Created from EPrint's datestamp field
- Updated
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2021-11-10Created from EPrint's last_modified field