Genesis of Hurricane Sandy (2012) simulated with a global mesoscale model
- Creators
- Shen, B.-W.
- DeMaria, M.
- Li, J.-L. F.
- Cheung, S.
Abstract
In this study, we investigate the formation predictability of Hurricane Sandy (2012) with a global mesoscale model. We first present five track and intensity forecasts of Sandy initialized at 00Z 22–26 October 2012, realistically producing its movement with a northwestward turn prior to its landfall. We then show that three experiments initialized at 00Z 16–18 October captured the genesis of Sandy with a lead time of up to 6 days and simulated reasonable evolution of Sandy's track and intensity in the next 2 day period of 18Z 21–23 October. Results suggest that the extended lead time of formation prediction is achieved by realistic simulations of multiscale processes, including (1) the interaction between an easterly wave and a low-level westerly wind belt (WWB) and (2) the appearance of the upper-level trough at 200 hPa to Sandy's northwest. The low-level WWB and upper-level trough are likely associated with a Madden-Julian Oscillation.
Additional Information
© 2013 The Authors. Geophysical Research Letters published by Wiley on behalf of the American Geophysical Union. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made. Received 30 July 2013; revised 5 September 2013; accepted 6 September 2013; published 19 September 2013. We are grateful for support from the NASA ESTO Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) program and NASA Computational Modeling Algorithms and Cyberinfrastructure (CMAC) program. We would also like to thank reviewers for valuable comments, D. Ellsworth for scientific, insightful visualizations, and K. Massaro, J. Pillard, and J. Dunbar for proofreading this manuscript. Acknowledgment is also made to the NASA HEC Program, the NAS Division, and the NCCS for the computer resources used in this research. The views, opinions, and findings contained in this report are those of the authors and should not be construed as an official NOAA or U.S. government position, policy, or decision. The Editor thanks two anonymous reviewers for their assistance in evaluating this paper.Attached Files
Published - grl50934.pdf
Supplemental Material - FigureS1.pdf
Supplemental Material - FigureS10.pdf
Supplemental Material - FigureS2.pdf
Supplemental Material - FigureS3.pdf
Supplemental Material - FigureS4_fin.pdf
Supplemental Material - FigureS5_fin.pdf
Supplemental Material - FigureS6.pdf
Supplemental Material - FigureS7.pdf
Supplemental Material - FigureS8.pdf
Supplemental Material - FigureS9.pdf
Supplemental Material - Shenetal2013SandySuppREADMEnew.txt
Supplemental Material - Shenetal2013SandysupplementalFinal.pdf
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Additional details
- Eprint ID
- 42340
- Resolver ID
- CaltechAUTHORS:20131108-113031863
- NASA ESTO Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program
- NASA Computational Modeling Algorithms and Cyberinfrastructure (CMAC) Program
- Created
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2013-11-08Created from EPrint's datestamp field
- Updated
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2021-11-10Created from EPrint's last_modified field