Regional level ground motion simulation for a hypothetical great earthquake in the Garwhal Himalaya

Abstract

The 500–800 km long segment located between the rupture zones of 1905 Kangra (M_W 7.8) and 1934 Bihar–Nepal earthquake (M_s 8.3) known as central seismic gap has not generated any great event since historic times. The objective of the present study is to simulate displacement time histories in the Garhwal-Himalayan region for a hypothetical great earthquake in the seismic gap using spectral finite element method. The orientation of the rupture plane, slip field and rupture velocity are modelled as random variables and ensemble of ground motions have been simulated. Contour maps of peak ground displacement (PGD) and peak ground residual displacement (PGRD) are provided in the epicentral region. The statistics of PGD at important cities and towns in the epicentral regions have been presented.

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