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Published August 1, 2003 | Supplemental Material
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Large Trench-Parallel Gravity Variations Predict Seismogenic Behavior in Subduction Zones

Abstract

We demonstrate that great earthquakes occur predominantly in regions with a strongly negative trench-parallel gravity anomaly (TPGA), whereas regions with strongly positive TPGA are relatively aseismic. These observations suggest that, over time scales up to at least 1 million years, spatial variations of seismogenic behavior within a given subduction zone are stationary and linked to the geological structure of the fore-arc. The correlations we observe are consistent with a model in which spatial variations in frictional properties on the plate interface control trench-parellel variations in fore-arc topography, gravity, and seismogenic behavior.

Additional Information

© 2003 American Association for the Advancement of Science. Received 10 April 2003; accepted 25 June 2003. We are grateful for two anonymous reviewers as well as thorough reviews by D. Anderson, M. Billen, M. Gurnis, H. Kanamori, T. Lay, R. Lohman, and J. Polet in earlier versions of this paper. We also thank R. Wells for open and enthusiastic discussions.

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