Application of Subset Simulation to Seismic Risk Analysis

Abstract

This paper presents the application of a new reliability method called Subset Simulation to seismic risk analysis of a structure, where the exceedance of some performance quantity, such as the peak interstory drift, above a specified threshold level is considered for the case of uncertain seismic excitation. This involves analyzing the well-known but difficult first-passage failure problem. Failure analysis is also carried out using results from Subset Simulation which yields information about the probable scenarios that may occur in case of failure. The results show that for given magnitude and epicentral distance (which are related to the 'intensity' of shaking), the probable mode of failure is due to a 'resonance effect.' On the other hand, when the magnitude and epicentral distance are considered to be uncertain, the probable failure mode correspondsto the occurrence of 'large-magnitude, small epicentral distance' earthquakes.

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