Controlling chaos in El Niño
- Creators
-
MacMynowski, Douglas G.
Abstract
Many weather and climate phenomena are chaotic in nature; indeed for many people this is the canonical example of a chaotic system. However, because of this, it is at least theoretically possible to have significant influence over these systems with extremely small control inputs. This potential is explored using the Cane-Zebiak 33 000-state model of the El-Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The model dynamics are nonlinear and chaotic, and the optimal control input can be found through iteration using the adjoint simulation. The performance of this optimal control (which implicitly assumes perfect model and state information) is compared with a simple SISO linear feedback. Significant reductions in ENSO amplitude are (theoretically) possible with very small control inputs, illustrating that it is possible to have significant influence over large-scale climatic phenomena without correspondingly large control effort.
Additional Information
© 2010 AACC. Issue Date: June 30 2010-July 2 2010. Date of Current Version: 29 July 2010. The adjoint simulation used herein was obtained from the Cane-Zebiak model using Adifor; a collaborative project between the Mathematics and Computer Science Division at Argonne National Laboratory and the Center for Research on Parallel Computation at Rice University. TAO data used in computing APE are made available by the TAO Project Office of NOAA/PMEL.Attached Files
Published - MacMynowski2010p134382009_American_Control_Conference_Vols_1-9.pdf
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Additional details
- Eprint ID
- 23289
- Resolver ID
- CaltechAUTHORS:20110412-143108662
- Created
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2011-05-26Created from EPrint's datestamp field
- Updated
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2019-10-03Created from EPrint's last_modified field
- Other Numbering System Name
- INSPEC Accession Number
- Other Numbering System Identifier
- 11508787