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Published March 1999 | Supplemental Material + Published
Journal Article Open

Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach

Abstract

Psychological studies show that most people are overconfident about their own relative abilities, and unreasonably optimistic about their futures (e.g., Neil D. Weinstein, 1980; Shelly E. Taylor and J. D. Brown, 1988). When assessing their position in a distribution of peers on almost any positive trait-like driving ability (Ola Svenson, 1981), income prospects, or longevity-a vast majority of people say they are above the average, although of course, only half can be (if the trait is symmetrically distributed).

Additional Information

© 1999 American Economic Association. Help and comments were received from Daniel Kahneman, Marc Knez, Matthew Rabin, David Teece, Dick Thaler, participants at the MacArthur Foundation Preferences Group, the 1995 J/DM Society, workshops at the Universities of Chicago and Colorado, UCLA, Harvard Business School, and Wharton, and several anonymous referees. Gail Nash provided superb secretarial help and Roberto Weber provided research assistance. The research was funded by National Science Foundation Grant No. SBR 95-11001.

Attached Files

Published - AER_Overconfidence_1_.pdf

Supplemental Material - instructions.pdf

Supplemental Material - raw_data.pdf

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Created:
August 19, 2023
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