Implications of the growth in demand for commercial and industrial electrical energy in the South Coast Air Basin

Abstract

An examination of statistical data for the period 1960-1970 shows a simple correlation between the growth in demand for commercial electrical energy in the South Coast Air Basin and the growth in commercial floor area and in electrical loading per square foot. Demand for industrial electrical energy correlates strongly with value added by manufacture and with kilowatt-hours per dollar of value added; growth in manufacturing floor area is a secondary factor. These simple correlations are utilized to forecast future demand for electrical energy in the Basin in terms of plausible "minimum" and "maximum" rates of economic growth. Comparisons between these demand projections and conservative estimates of available electrical generating capacity bring out the "tightness" of the short-run demand-supply situation. A "management standard" for growth in demand for electrical energy of 5% per year is suggested as a goal for the mid-1970's. Long-range implications of environmental, land use and technological constraints on electrical energy supply are examined and related to possible limitations on the rate of economic expansion in the South Coast Air Basin. Conversely, one can utilize the results of this study to estimate the relationship between a desired rate of economic growth and the demand for electrical energy.

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