Assessing fossil fuel CO_2 emissions in California using atmospheric observations and models

Abstract

Analysis systems incorporating atmospheric observations could provide a powerful tool for validating fossil fuel CO_2 (ffCO_2) emissions reported for individual regions, provided that fossil fuel sources can be separated from other CO_2 sources or sinks and atmospheric transport can be accurately accounted for. We quantified ffCO_2 by measuring radiocarbon (^(14)C) in CO_2, an accurate fossil-carbon tracer, at nine observation sites in California for three months in 2014–15. There is strong agreement between the measurements and ffCO_2 simulated using a high-resolution atmospheric model and a spatiotemporally-resolved fossil fuel flux estimate. Inverse estimates of total in-state ffCO_2 emissions are consistent with the California Air Resources Board's reported ffCO_2 emissions, providing tentative validation of California's reported ffCO_2 emissions in 2014–15. Continuing this prototype analysis system could provide critical independent evaluation of reported ffCO_2 emissions and emissions reductions in California, and the system could be expanded to other, more data-poor regions.

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