The Seismic Signature of Debris Flows: Flow Mechanics and Early Warning at Montecito, California

Abstract

Debris flows are concentrated slurries of water and sediment that shape the landscape and pose a major hazard to human life and infrastructure. Seismic ground motion‐based observations promise to provide new, remote constraints on debris flow physics, but the lack of data and a theoretical basis for interpreting them hinders progress. Here we present a new mechanistic physical model for the seismic ground motion of debris flows and apply this to the devastating debris flows in Montecito, California on 9 January 2018. The amplitude and frequency characteristics of the seismic data can distinguish debris flows from other seismic sources and enable the estimation of debris‐flow speed, width, boulder sizes, and location. Results suggest that present instrumentation could have provided 5 min of early warning over limited areas, whereas a seismic array designed for debris flows would have provided 10 min of warning for most of the city.

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