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Published December 1, 2017 | public
Journal Article

Bayes rule as a descriptive model: The representative heuristic

Abstract

Results of experiments designed to test the claim of psychologists that expected utility theory does not provide a good descriptive model are reported. The deviation from tested theory is that, in revising beliefs, individuals ignore prior or base-rate information contrary to Bayes rule. Flaws in the evidence in the psychological literature are noted, an experiment avoiding these difficulties is designed and carried out, and the psychologists' predictions are stated in terms of a more general model. The psychologists' predictions are confirmed for inexperienced or financially unmotivated subjects, but for others the evidence is less clear.

Additional Information

© 1980 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College. Financial support by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration is gratefully acknowledged. I would like to thank my colleagues, Forrest D. Nelson, Charles R. Plott, and Louis L. Wilde for their many helpful suggestions and comments, and Steven Matthews, Brian Binger, Elizabeth Hoffman, and Gerhard Befeld for their research assistance. Formerly SSWP 245.

Additional details

Created:
August 19, 2023
Modified:
October 17, 2023