Some Problems in Studying the Effects of Resource Allocation in Congressional Elections
- Creators
- Fiorina, Morris P.
- Others:
- Cain, Bruce E.
- Ferejohn, John A.
Abstract
After analyzing (1) data aggregated to the congressional district level, and (2) individual level data from the 1978 CPS Study, Johannes and McAdams conclude that congressional casework has no electoral impact. This commentary explains such null findings as the product of oversimplistic expectations and methodological weaknesses. Specifically, the Johannes and McAdams aggregate data analysis is misspecified on two counts. First, it attempts to reduce to a single regression equation a temporal sequence in which casework activity and electoral outcomes are mutually intertwined. Second, even were such a drastic reduction possible, the single equation employed would be poorly specified because of inattention to the differential productivity of cases, constituents, and representatives. The individual level analysis also is rife with statistical problems chief among which is multicollinearity aggravated by small numbers of cases. Analyses which do what is possible to minimize such problems reveal a statistically and substantively significant impact of casework on electoral outcomes. Further analyses which go beyond the Johannes and McAdams limitation of casework effects to the individual(s) directly helped suggest that the electoral effects of an incumbent's reputation for service may approach the effects of party identification.
Additional Information
Revised for publication in October 1980 and January 1981. The research reported in this paper is part of a larger project undertaken in collaboration with Bruce Cain and John Ferejohn and supported by the National Science Foundation (SOC 78-15413). The paper relies heavily on data from the 1978 CPS/NES National Election Study. Neither the National Science Foundation nor CPS/NES is responsible for the interpretations offered herein. Published as Fiorina, Morris P. "Some problems in studying the effects of resource allocation in congressional elections." American Journal of Political Science (1981): 543-567.Attached Files
Submitted - sswp344_-_revised.pdf
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Additional details
- Eprint ID
- 82227
- Resolver ID
- CaltechAUTHORS:20171009-142540304
- SOC 78-15413
- NSF
- Created
-
2017-10-09Created from EPrint's datestamp field
- Updated
-
2019-10-03Created from EPrint's last_modified field
- Caltech groups
- Social Science Working Papers
- Series Name
- Social Science Working Paper
- Series Volume or Issue Number
- 344