Pivot Mechanisms in Probability Revelation
- Creators
- Page, Talbot
Abstract
The Groves mechanism and k^th price auctions are well-known examples of pivot mechanisms. In this paper an analogous pivot mechanism is defined for probability revelation and then the Bayesian equilibria are characterized for the three pivot mechanisms. The main result is that in Bayesian games with these pivot mechanisms, equilibria must satisfy a simple fixed point condition. The result does not require signal ordering properties and thus generalizes and simplifies results by Milgrom and others. When the fixed point is unique there is "no regret." The result also holds for games less structured than Bayesian games (where the common knowledge and consistency assumptions are relaxed). The pivot mechanism in probability revelation is shown to generalize and characterize proper scoring rules. The characterization yields an optimization of research incentives for proper scoring rules and suggests that under some conditions the new mechanisms, which are pivot mechanisms but not proper scoring rules, outperform proper scoring rules.
Additional Information
This research was supported by the National Science Foundation and by the Mellon Foundation. I would like to thank John Ferejohn, Leonid Hurwicz, Lode Li, Richard McKelvey, Roger Noll, and Jennifer Reinganum for many helpful comments.Attached Files
Submitted - sswp596.pdf
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Additional details
- Eprint ID
- 81432
- Resolver ID
- CaltechAUTHORS:20170913-170459300
- NSF
- Andrew W. Mellon Foundation
- Created
-
2017-09-15Created from EPrint's datestamp field
- Updated
-
2019-10-03Created from EPrint's last_modified field
- Caltech groups
- Social Science Working Papers
- Series Name
- Social Science Working Paper
- Series Volume or Issue Number
- 596