Precipitation, Circulation, and Cloud Variability Over the Past Two Decades

Abstract

To better understand the variability of precipitation, circulation, and cloud, we examine the precipitation, vertical velocity, total cloud fraction, condensed water path, and ice water path from observations and 13 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models over 1988–2008. All variables are averaged over wet areas and dry areas to investigate temporal variations of different variables over these regions. We found that all models demonstrate similar temporal variations of precipitation as the observational data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project, with positive trend over wet areas (6.22 ± 3.75 mm/mon/decade) and negative trend over dry areas (−0.77 ± 0.54 mm/mon/decade). Positive trends of vertical velocity, total cloud fraction, condensed water path, and ice water path are also found in the observations and models over the wet areas. Observations also demonstrate decreasing trends of vertical velocity, total clouds, condensed water path, and ice water path over the dry areas, which can be simulated by most models with a few exceptions. The qualitatively consistent trends in these variables (i.e., vertical velocity, cloud, liquid, and ice water contents) as revealed from the observations and CMIPS models provide a clearer picture of the dynamics and physics behind the temporal variations of precipitation over different areas.

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