Welcome to the new version of CaltechAUTHORS. Login is currently restricted to library staff. If you notice any issues, please email coda@library.caltech.edu
Published August 14, 2017 | Submitted
Report Open

Do Voters Learn from Presidential Election Campaigns?

Abstract

Theory: We present a model of voter campaign learning which is based on Bayesian learning models. This model assumes voters are imperfectly informed and that they incorporate new information into their existing perceptions about candidate issue positions in a systematic manner. Hypothesis: Additional information made available to voters about candidate issue positions during the course of a political campaign will lead voters to have more precise perceptions of the issue positions of the candidates involved. Data and Methods: We use panel survey data from the 1976 and 1980 presidential elections, combined with content analyses of the media during these same elections. Our primary analysis is conducted using random effects panel models. Results: We find that during each of these campaigns many voters became better informed about the positions of candidates on many issues and that these changes in voter information are directly related to the information flow during each presidential campaign.

Additional Information

An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Southern Political Science Association Annual Meeting, November 1996. We thank the John M. Olin Foundation for sponsoring some of this research. We also thank Thomas Patterson for access to his content analysis of the 1976 presidential election, and Stacy Kerkla for her assistance with content analysis of the 1980 presidential election. Last, we thank Jonathan Katz for helpful discussions.

Attached Files

Submitted - sswp1022.pdf

Files

sswp1022.pdf
Files (340.1 kB)
Name Size Download all
md5:62d0eb9b98d10680bbae1763ce990de9
340.1 kB Preview Download

Additional details

Created:
August 19, 2023
Modified:
January 14, 2024