The Revolution Against Affirmative Action in California: Politics, Economics, and Proposition 209

Abstract

We consider two possible explanations-economic anxiety and racial division for the appeal of Proposition 209 to California voters during the 1996 election. Voter support for this proposition has been attributed to racial differences in opinion and to economic anxiety caused by poor economic conditions in the state and the perceived threat that affirmative action presented in school admissions or the workplace. Because the presidential candidates campaigned on and debated the merits of affirmative action policy during this election, we incorporate this endogeneity into our analysis. We develop two competing hypotheses to explain voter behavior: (1) if voters are blaming affirmative action for the state's economic conditions, then voters who believe that California's economic condition is poor or who perceive that their personal financial situation is worse will be more likely to support Proposition 209; and (2) if voters are, instead, divided along more traditional racial lines on the merits of affirmative action (winners versus losers), then whites, males, Republicans, and conservatives will be more likely to support Proposition 209, and other ethnic group members, females, Democrats, and liberals will be more likely to oppose Proposition 209. To test these hypotheses, we analyze voter exit poll data from the 1996 California election. We utilize a two-stage logit model to allow for the endogeneity of candidate endorsements. We find support for the second of our two hypotheses. These findings cause us to conclude that racial division fueled by a fear of arbitrary exclusion prompted voter support for Proposition 209.

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