The Tesla Run-Up: A Follow-Up with Investment Implications
- Creators
- Cornell, Bradford
Abstract
In the fall of 2014, Aswath Damodaran and I published an article in The Journal of Portfolio Management that analyzed the run-up in Tesla stock from $36.62 on March 22, 2013, to $253.00 on February 26, 2014. In the article, Cornell and Damodaran [2014], we argued that the almost sevenfold increase in price could not be explained by fundamentals alone. As part of that study, we conducted a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis to estimate the fundamental value of Tesla. Using aggressive assumptions, including a period of sustained revenue growth of 70% and a corresponding dramatic increase in operating profitability, we found that the DCF model produced a value for Tesla of $100.35 per share—only about 40% of then-current market price. We concluded that the stock was significantly overvalued and attributed that overvaluation, at least in part, to investor sentiment.
Additional Information
© 2016 Institutional Investor LLC. I would like to thank Aswath Damodaran for a series of discussions on the topic of this article. Additional comments were made by Rob Arnott, John Haut, Jason Hsu, and May Huang. Of course, responsibility for the opinions is my own.Additional details
- Eprint ID
- 73204
- DOI
- 10.3905/jpm.2016.43.1.001
- Resolver ID
- CaltechAUTHORS:20170104-105725360
- Created
-
2017-01-04Created from EPrint's datestamp field
- Updated
-
2021-11-11Created from EPrint's last_modified field