The Potential Uses of Operational Earthquake Forecasting

Creators: Field, Edward H.; Jordan, Thomas H.; Jones, Lucile M.; Michael, Andrew J.; Blanpied, Michael L.

Abstract

This article reports on a workshop held to explore the potential uses of operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). We discuss the current status of OEF in the United States and elsewhere, the types of products that could be generated, the various potential users and uses of OEF, and the need for carefully crafted communication protocols. Although operationalization challenges remain, there was clear consensus among the stakeholders at the workshop that OEF could be useful.

Additional Information

© 2016 Seismological Society of America. Published Online 3 February 2016. The meeting to address potential uses of OEF was supported by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis (https://powellcenter.usgs.gov; last accessed April 2015), the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC; http://www.scec.org; last accessed April 2015), and the USGS Science Application for Risk Reduction program (SAFRR; http://www.usgs.gov/natural_hazards/safrr; last accessed April 2015). Useful comments were also provided by Kate Long of the California Emergency Management Agency, who was unable to attend the conference. Finally, we thank Sue Perry, John Vidale, and an anonymous Seismological Review Letters reviewer for their extensive and influential comments. This is SCEC Contribution Number 6029. Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the United States Government. Participants in the Potential Uses of Operational Earthquake Forcasting (OEF) Workshop were Norm Abrahamson, Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E); Shawna Ackerman, California Earthquake Authority (CEA); Jill Barnes, LA Unified; Michael Blanpied, USGS, Reston; Ann Bostrom, University of Washington; Kenneth Campbell, CoreLogic; Paul Earle, USGS, Golden; Edward Field, USGS, Golden; Delphine Fitzenz, Risk Management Solutions (RMS); Matt Gerstenberger, Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences (GNS) New Zealand; Jeanne Hardebeck, USGS, Menlo Park; Austin Holland, Oklahoma Geological Survey; Kishor Jaiswal, USGS, Golden; Lucile Jones, USGS, Pasadena; Thomas Jordan, University of Southern California (USC); Connie Lackey, Providence Medical Centers; Herby Lissade, Caltrans Division of Research, Innovation, and System Information (DRI); Nico Luco, USGS, Golden; Warner Marzocchi, INGV, Italy; Andrew Michael, USGS, Menlo Park; Kevin Milner, USC; Morgan Page, USGS, Pasadena; Jaesung Park, Nephila Capital; Mark Petersen, USGS, Golden; Keith Porter, University of Colorado, Boulder; Peter Powers, USGS, Golden; John Schelling, Washington Emergency Management Division; Deanna >Sellnow, University of Central Florida; Timothy Sellnow, University of Central Florida; Nilesh Shome, RMS; Christopher Terzich, Wells Fargo; Daniel Trugman, University of California San Diego (UCSD); Terry Tullis, Brown University; Loren Turner, Caltrans DRI; Nicholas van der Elst, USGS, Pasadena; David Wald, USGS, Golden; and Anne Wein, USGS, Menlo Park.

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