Expansion, and contraction

Abstract

By any quantitative measure you choose, the size of the scientific enterprise grew exponentially from its founding around 1700 until about 1970. Thus, the cumulative number of scientific journals grew from a few around 1700, to 10 around 1750, 100 around 1800 and so on, reaching 100,000 around 1950. Similarly the number of physics PhDs in the United States grew from the first awarded in 1870 to about 10 per year in 1900, 100 per year in 1930 and 1,000 per year around 1970; but then the growth stopped abruptly and the total has fluctuated around 1,000 per year ever since.

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