Estimate of the Location of the Solar wind Termination Shock

Abstract

Over the next three years the termination shock is expected to reach its minimum distance from the Sun before moving outward again in response to increased solar wind dynamic pressure during the new solar cycle. Five different methods of inferring the distance to the shock lead to estimates that cluster in the range of 90± LO AU. In August 2001 Voyager I will be at 82 AU and moving outward at 3.6 AU per year, suggesting the possibility of encountering the termination shock by 2005 before it starts moving outward again.

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