Prospects for Larger or More Frequent Earthquakes in the Los Angeles Metropolitan Region
Abstract
Far too few moderate earthquakes have occurred within the Los Angeles, California, metropolitan region during the 200-year-long historic period to account for observed strain accumulation, indicating that the historic era represents either a lull between clusters of moderate earthquakes or part of a centuries-long interseismic period between much larger (moment magnitude, M_w, 7.2 to 7.6) events. Geologic slip rates and relations between moment magnitude, average coseismic slip, and rupture area show that either of these hypotheses is possible, but that the latter is the more plausible of the two. The average time between M_w 7.2 to 7.6 earthquakes from a combination of six fault systems within the metropolitan area was estimated to be about 140 years.
Additional Information
© 1995 American Association for the Advancement of Science. We thank D. Agnew, A. Donnellan, T. Heaton, S. Hough, R. Stein, D. Wald, and T. Wallace for helpful discussions. We also thank S. Hough, D. Jackson, and S. Wesnousky for thoughtful reviews. This research was supported by grants from the California Department of Transportation, the City of Los Angeles, the County of Los Angeles, NSF Cooperative Agreement ERA-89-20136, and USGS Cooperative Agreement 14-08-0001-89-A0899, all administered by the SCEC. SCEC contribution #119.Additional details
- Eprint ID
- 53949
- DOI
- 10.1126/science.267.5195.199
- Resolver ID
- CaltechAUTHORS:20150121-124214666
- California Department of Transportation
- City of Los Angeles
- County of Los Angeles
- ERA-89-20136
- NSF
- 14-08-0001-A0899
- USGS
- Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC)
- Created
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2015-01-21Created from EPrint's datestamp field
- Updated
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2021-11-10Created from EPrint's last_modified field