The sensitivity of tropospheric methane to the interannual variability in stratospheric ozone

Abstract

The dominant processes affecting the concentration of tropospheric methane on interannual timescales are the biospheric and anthropogenic sources and changes in the abundance of the hydroxyl radical caused by the changes in the UV flux which result from changes in stratospheric ozone abundance. We have carried out an empirical study of the sensitivity of the methane to fluctuations in ozone column abundance. This analysis was carried out using monthly mean surface methane concentrations measured by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory (NOAA-CMDL) Global Cooperative Air Sampling Network from 1983 to 1998 and ozone column abundances obtained by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and the EP TOMS instruments over the same time period. We focused on interannual variability with periods between 15 and 60 months, in which interval the dominant ozone fluctuation is the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), with a period of approximately 29 months. In order to isolate the response of methane to ozone from the effects of variability in the sources and transport of methane, we restricted our analysis to data at mid-latitudes in the southern hemisphere. A statistical study shows that the sensitivity factor α≡−d(ln[CH_4])/d(ln[O_3])=−0.038±0.009. The response of CH_4 lags approximately 6 months behind the forcing by O_3. A simple model was used to interpret the empirical results. Our results confirm that any mechanism that affects stratospheric ozone impacts the oxidizing potential of the troposphere. CH_4 fluctuations provide a quantitative measure of this important effect linking the upper and the lower atmosphere.

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