Rigorous model-based uncertainty quantification with application to terminal ballistics—Part II. Systems with uncontrollable inputs and large scatter

Abstract

This Part II of this series is concerned with establishing the feasibility of an extended data-on-demand (XDoD) uncertainty quantification (UQ) protocol based on concentration-of-measure inequalities and martingale theory. Specific aims are to establish the feasibility of the protocol and its basic properties, including the tightness of the predictions afforded by the protocol. The assessment is based on an application to terminal ballistics and a specific system configuration consisting of 6061-T6 aluminum plates struck by spherical 440c stainless steel projectiles at ballistic impact speeds in the range of 2.4–2.8 km/s. The system's inputs are the plate thickness, plate obliquity and impact velocity. The perforation area is chosen as the sole performance measure of the system. The objective of the UQ analysis is to certify the lethality of the projectile, i.e., that the projectile perforates the plate with high probability over a prespecified range of impact velocities, plate thicknesses and plate obliquities. All tests were conducted at Caltech's Small Particle Hypervelocity Range (SPHIR), which houses a two-stage gas gun. A feature of this facility is that the impact velocity, while amenable to precise measurement, cannot be controlled precisely but varies randomly according to a known probability density function. In addition, due to a competition between petalling and plugging mechanisms for the material system under consideration, the measured perforation area exhibits considerable scatter. The analysis establishes the feasibility of the XDoD UQ protocol as a rigorous yet practical approach for model-based certification of complex systems characterized by uncontrollable inputs and noisy experimental data.

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