Can we control El Niño?

Abstract

The question of whether it is possible to intentionally modify the El Niño/Southern oscillation (ENSO) cycle is explored as a case study in the dynamics of climate intervention beyond simple temperature adjustment. A plausible control strategy is described, including an estimate of the energy it would require to implement. The intent here is not to suggest that we should do so, but rather that the scale of the required intervention is such that we could intentionally influence ENSO. Simulations use the Cane–Zebiak intermediate complexity model, and demonstrate that depending on the parameter regime, a feedback strategy that dynamically deflects less than 1% of the sunlight over the Niño-3 region of the eastern tropical Pacific could be used to reduce the probability of extreme ENSO events (T > 2°C) to near zero, or conversely to enhance the cycle.

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